How much can a new customer from a creator campaign cost if they buy again later?

The highest CAC (customer acquisition cost, what it costs you to win one new customer) you can afford is that customer’s lifetime value (CLV) over a set period. That means contribution margin, not revenue: what is left of the orders after cost of goods, shipping, payment and returns.

Maximum CAC = margin on the first order + repeat orders per new customer in the period × margin per repeat order. All figures in the example are assumptions, so plug in your own.

1. Pick a cohort, meaning everyone who ordered from you for the first time in the same period. Their period must already be over: for 12 months, take for example all first orders from 1 January to 31 March 2025, whose 12 months ended by 31 March 2026 at the latest. According to its help centre, Shopify’s default Customer cohort analysis report groups customers by the date of their first order.
2. Count the repeat orders: every further order these people placed within 12 months of their first, excluding cancellations. Divide the total by the number of people in the cohort. Say 400 people placed 240 further orders between them: that is 0.6 repeat orders per new customer.
3. Work out the margin per repeat order: net order value excluding VAT, minus cost of goods, shipping, payment fees and return costs, say €20. If someone buys again later through a creator’s link, you pay commission on that order too, so deduct it for those orders.
4. Work out the margin on the first order including the discount it costs you but without the commission, which is already part of the campaign costs. If the new customer code gives, say, €5 off, €15 is left. Then don’t count the discount a second time in the campaign costs.
5. Plug it in: €15 + 0.6 × €20 = €27. At this CAC, the campaign just earns back its costs after 12 months.
6. Check that the assumption fits creator campaigns. People who buy for the first time with a discount don’t necessarily reorder as often as your cohort average. Until you can see new customers from creator campaigns as a cohort of their own, plan with a more cautious scenario from the table below.

Every row uses €15 margin from the first order and €20 per repeat order, with repeat orders counted per new customer. The maximum CAC is the customer value, for example after 24 months in the medium scenario: €15 + 1.0 × €20 = €35. Pay exactly that and nothing is left over the period for fixed costs or profit, so plan below it.

For the last column, assume a new customer costs €25. After the first order, €10 is still missing, which is half a repeat order at €20. The table assumes repeat orders are spread evenly. In the medium scenario that is 0.05 a month, so half an order is reached after 10 months. In your own cohort, look for the month in which repeat orders per person reach (CAC − margin on the first order) ÷ margin per repeat order, in the example (€25 − €15) ÷ €20 = 0.5.

Which period you use is a question of risk and cash flow. You pay for the campaign now, the repeat orders arrive over months, and the further out they are, the less certain they become. Only use 24 months if you have already tracked cohorts for that long and your range and prices stay similar over that time.

CAC divides the costs not by all orders but only by orders from new customers. So for each creator you need to know which orders came from people who had not bought from you before.

There is only something to count if creators post. Having your products in an affiliate programme where creators can pick them doesn’t bring in new customers on its own. Many partners in a programme never become active, and the creators you most want for your brand rarely post without a reason such as a product launch, a campaign or a fee. What you spend to get them posting therefore belongs in the costs. And only counting per creator shows you who brings in new customers and where the next budget should go.

1. Decide who counts as new and stick to that rule. According to its help centre, Shopify counts a customer as returning if their order history already includes at least one order. Google Ads recommends a 540-day window for the new_customer parameter: a new customer there is someone who has not purchased within that time. For your report, use one rule across all channels.
2. Give each creator their own link and their own code. If your shop system can restrict a code to the first order, a new customer code gives you a second signal. Codes that get passed on, for example on voucher sites, are still credited to the creator who owns the code.
3. Wait until the tracking window has closed, meaning the time after the last post in which orders still count, for example 14 days, and the return window for those orders. Then export every order with the creator’s link or code and match it against your order history, using the customer account or email address. If there was already an order under it within your set period, the person does not count as new.
4. Count anything you cannot assign with certainty separately, such as guest orders with a new email address. Google Ads has a dedicated “Not specified” value for the new_customer parameter for such cases, and its help centre gives guest checkout as an example.
5. Divide the costs by the new customers. Say the campaign costs €2,000 in commission, samples and shipping and brings 110 orders, 80 of them from new customers. CPO (cost per order) is €2,000 ÷ 110 = €18.18, CAC is €2,000 ÷ 80 = €25. Leave the 30 orders from people who had bought from you before out of this calculation, because you don’t know how many of them would have come without the campaign.
6. Share only figures with creators, never names or email addresses from your shop.

The campaign orders are measured, customer value is a forecast. Put both into a single figure and nobody can see which part is already certain. So report two results: campaign ROAS (return on ad spend), which is net revenue from all orders with a link or code after returns divided by costs, and the customer value of the new customers you won compared with costs.

In the example, the 110 orders bring, say, €5,100 net revenue after returns: 80 first orders from new customers at €45 each and 30 orders from people who had bought from you before at €50 each. Campaign ROAS is €5,100 ÷ €2,000 = 2.55. Their margin before commission, which is already in the costs, 80 × €15 + 30 × €20 = €1,800, is still €200 below costs. If the medium scenario with €27 customer value holds, the 80 new customers bring €2,160 in margin after 12 months, €160 more than the campaign cost.

Even the measured part is an approximation. Links and codes don’t capture every new customer: someone who sees a post and orders later after searching for your brand is missing from the count. Conversely, some of the new customers you count would have come without the campaign. To check if these new customers are incremental, run a test such as a staggered start, where some of the creators begin later.

Take care when comparing with ads. If you use the customer acquisition goal in Google Ads with a new customer value, the Google Ads help says that value is added to the purchase conversion, and the “Conversion value” column includes both. A ROAS from that column is therefore not a campaign ROAS based on measured orders. Only compare creators and ads on the same basis.

Campaign: [name], posts from [date] to [date], orders counted until [date], returns closed on [date]
New means: no order under the same email address or customer account in the previous [number] months

Per creator: [initials]
Costs: commission [€] + samples and shipping [€] + fee [€] + platform or agency [€] = [€]
Orders: [number], of which from new customers: [number], unassigned: [number]
CPO = costs ÷ orders: [€]
CAC = costs ÷ new customers: [€]

1. Campaign orders (measured)
Net revenue after returns: [€]
Campaign ROAS = net revenue ÷ costs: [value]
Margin on orders − costs: [€]

2. Customer value (forecast)
Assumed repeat orders per new customer in 12 months: [value], source: [cohort, period]
Customer value 12 months = first-order margin + repeat orders × margin per repeat order: [€]
CAC below customer value: [yes/no]
Check on: [date in 6 and 12 months], actual repeat orders: [value]

With wyrld Boost you put up a campaign budget for creators who feature your products. You set the products, KPIs and time frame, for example purchases during Black Friday week. Many creators can take part at once. Taking part is each creator’s own decision, so there is no promise on the number of participants, reach or sales. The pool goes to the creators according to the KPIs they hit, they label their campaign videos as advertising, and after the campaign you see which creator delivered which results.

For each campaign you decide where the purchase happens: only in your shop, on Amazon or with price comparison across the shops that carry your product. To measure CAC as described above, choose “only in your shop”. The purchase then happens in your online shop. Ordering, payment, shipping and the customer relationship stay with you, and you match the campaign’s purchases against your order history as above. Purchases on Amazon or in other shops don’t show up there. Divide the budget plus samples, shipping and your share of the subscription, if you use it, by the new customers among those purchases and compare that CAC with customer value.

The brand and shop subscription shows you which creators feature your products, who drives clicks and who sells. With the creators who sell, wyrld sets up individual terms such as your own commission rates or bonuses. In your affiliate programme, through which creators can usually already pick your products, wyrld appears as a single partner. You pay there on your terms, per click, per sale or both, and match the orders your programme attributes to wyrld against your order history in the same way. Without an affiliate programme, you can also connect directly. If other shops carry the same product, the customer decides in the price comparison where to buy, and only purchases in your shop go into your calculation. Prices for the subscription and Boost are available on request, and we are happy to talk through what fits your numbers.